ubet63 deposit Somalia, located in the Horn of Africa, has become synonymous with political instability, chronic violence, and humanitarian crises. The last two decades, in particular, have seen the country dealing with ongoing civil war, terrorism, and devastating cycles of famine. Somalia’s modern conflicts started with the collapse of Siad Barre's regime in 1991. This marked the disintegration of the Somali state, which quickly devolved into clan-based rivalries and a civil war. The absence of a central government opened space for warlords to take over, warring between themselves to carve up the country. In the 2000s, the rise of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), a coalition of Sharia courts, briefly brought order to southern Somalia. However, neighbouring country Ethiopia, backed by the US, then invaded Somalia in 2006 in order to oust the ICU. This invasion paved the way for al-Shabaab, an extremist group that went on to become one of the largest insurgencies in Africa. BY Seema Guha Al-Shabaab And Extremism Al-Shabaab is Arabic for "The Youth”. The group came to fore in 2006, purportedly a radical offshoot of the ICU. Capitalising on the people’s discontent with foreign interventions and corruption, Al-Shabaab gained control of large parts of southern and central Somalia. With over 99 per cent of the population being Muslim, Al-Shabaab exploited religious sentiments to further its agenda. It imposed a harsh interpretation of Islamic law and is known to conduct attacks on civilians, government officials, and international targets. Al-Shabaab extends beyond Somalia’s borders. The group has carried out high-profile attacks in Kenya, such as the Westgate Mall attack in 2013 and the Garissa University massacre in 2015. These acts of terror have underscored the group’s regional threat and highlighted the porous borders and governance challenges of the Horn of Africa. While the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces have pushed al-Shabaab out of major cities like Mogadishu and Kismayo, the group continues to grow. In 2012, the establishment of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), following a series of transitional administrations, was considered globally as a ray of hope for the region. However, the FGS has faced significant challenges in uniting the fractured land. Somaliland, in the northwest, declared independence in 1991 and has functioned as a de facto state with its own military. It has not yet been recognised internationally. Puntland, another autonomous region, cooperates with the federal government but maintains its own military and governance structures. International Interventions And The Fight Against Piracy In the early 2000s, news of Somali pirates hijacking commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, threatening global shipping lanes, was everywhere. International naval coalitions, alongside local measures, have since reduced piracy, but the underlying economic reasons that drove the activities remain unaddressed. AMISOM, an African Union-led regional peacekeeping force, played a vital role in combating al-Shabaab and supporting the Somali government. Backed by the United Nations and donor nations, AMISOM helped secure key territories, but this took a toll in the form of civilian casualties. The United States and other Western nations have also conducted airstrikes and special operations against al-Shabaab leaders. BY Farah Barqawi Some Hope? In 2021-2022, Somalia conducted a protracted but ultimately successful parliamentary and presidential election process, electing President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The peaceful transfer of power was a testament to the resilience of Somali political institutions, even amid security challenges. In recent years, Mogadishu, once a war zone, has seen businesses reopen and the Somali diaspora investing in reconstruction.BEING a pro footballer around Christmas might be the most depressing time of your life. I’m not asking for huge amounts of sympathy. We are very privileged people who get paid extremely well, so I don’t expect the tiny violins to be coming out. But it is not an easy time. Your whole family is buzzing — the Pringles are out, the wine, the beers. So many things that you would normally enjoy but just know you cannot do it. I remember as a footballer having Christmas dinner and knowing we were playing a game the next day. READ MORE ON FOOTBALL I would have to ask for a third of what I would normally stuff on my plate. Now I am retired — my first Christmas away from the game for nearly 20 years — I asked my family to give me a third more than I can even stomach. I was so excited and loved it. But as a professional player, you would be counting how many potatoes you have eaten. Most read in Football CASINO SPECIAL - BEST CASINO BONUSES FROM £10 DEPOSITS Then the club nutritionists would be on to you. I used to have to jump in the gym straight after my turkey dinner. I was West Ham captain but I almost went to jail over bankruptcy I'm a former Man Utd star and I once stole a girl from Ronaldo I'm an ex-Man Utd star - now I own a dog-themed B&B I was Thierry Henry's toughest opponent but quit to become a pastor I’m a former Wolves striker but I left football behind to become a vicar Usually, if we had an away game on Boxing Day, we would have to train in the late afternoon or early evening on Christmas Day — and then it was straight to wherever the hotel was. I’d get up in the morning on Christmas Day, do stuff with the kids, have a light breakfast, probably run a 5k on the treadmill, then the family came over to have dinner but you are always watching the time. Let’s say we had dinner at 1:30pm. I would then get on the scales at 2:45pm and I am two kilos over. So, I have to jump in the sauna for 20 minutes. Then it is in the car, down to training, weigh yourself again and into a hotel with 20 other lads who also don’t want to be there. You’re looking on your social media and everyone is posting videos of themselves enjoying some drinks, opening presents, spending time with their kids. It really hits you. By the time Boxing Day comes around, everyone is in the mindset of, ‘Thank God that’s over’. I always tried to have a bigger dinner that day to make up for what I missed. For me and my family, our Christmas Day would be on the 27th, so you could enjoy yourself and have a few days resting before the New Year games. As players, we were generally well behaved during those periods. Sometimes at Watford, depending on the manager we had, we would have to come in for training at 8am on Christmas Day, so everyone would be home by midday. Get in, get out. There used to be a rule whereby you then did not have to report until Boxing Day morning. But that was stopped after a few players would turn up with red eyes after staying out until 2am. Those Christmas Day morning sessions were the worst, because my kids would wake up all excited wanting to open their presents and I would have to say: “No, wait until dad gets home!” It’s torture. And even when I got home, I would have to eat, shower, have a little nap and then drive back to the hotel for 7pm. When I first met my wife, she thought I would only train a couple of times a week and then play on a Saturday. READ MORE SUN STORIES She then got the biggest shock of her life. My life was so regimented, even at Christmas. Look, it’s part of the gig. You’re paid to put up with it but it was a mental strain at times, especially with kids and those who were really family-orientated.

NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks are closing lower as Wall Street ends a holiday-shortened week on a down note. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% Friday and the the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 333 points, or 0.8%. The Nasdaq composite dropped 1.5%. The “Magnificent 7” stocks weighed on the market, led by declines in Nvidia, Tesla and Microsoft. Even with the loss, the S&P 500 had a modest gain for the week and is still headed for its second consecutive annual gain of more than 20%, the first time that has happened since 1997-1998. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.62%. THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below. NEW YORK (AP) — Technology stocks are dragging down the market Friday as Wall Street closes out a holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 fell 1.3%, with more than 90% of stocks in the benchmark index losing ground. The benchmark index was managing to hold onto a modest gain for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 418 points, or 1%, to 42,878 as of 1:43 p.m. Eastern time. The Nasdaq composite fell 1.8%. Technology stocks were the biggest weight on the market Friday. Semiconductor giant Nvidia slumped 2.7%. Its enormous valuation gives it an outsize influence on indexes. Other Big Tech stocks losing ground included Microsoft, with a 2% decline. A wide range of retailers also fell. Amazon fell 1.9% and Best Buy slipped 1.8%. The sector is being closely watched for clues on how it performed during the holiday shopping season. Energy stocks held up better than the rest of the market, with a loss of just 0.1% as crude oil prices rose 1.4%. The S&P 500 gained nearly 3% over a 3-day stretch before breaking for the Christmas holiday. On Thursday, the index posted a small decline. “There's just some uncertainty over this relief rally we've witnessed since last week,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial. Despite Friday's drop, the market is moving closer to another standout annual finish . The S&P 500 is on track for a gain of around 25% in 2024. That would mark a second consecutive yearly gain of more than 20%, the first time that has happened since 1997-1998. The gains have been driven partly by upbeat economic data showing that consumers continued spending and the labor market remained strong. Inflation, while still high, has also been steadily easing. A report on Friday showed that sales and inventory estimates for the wholesales trade industry fell 0.2% in November, following a slight gain in October. That weaker-than-expected report follows an update on the labor market Thursday that showed unemployment benefits held steady last week. The stream of upbeat economic data and easing inflation helped prompt a reversal in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy this year. Expectations for interest rate cuts also helped drive market gains. The central bank recently delivered its third cut to interest rates in 2024. Even though Inflation has come closer to the central bank's target of 2%, it remains stubbornly above that mark and worries about it heating up again have tempered the forecast for more interest rate cuts. Inflation concerns have added to uncertainties heading into 2025, which include the labor market’s path ahead and shifting economic policies under incoming President Donald Trump. Worries have risen that Trump’s preference for tariffs and other policies could lead to higher inflation , a bigger U.S. government debt and difficulties for global trade. Amedisys rose 4.7% after the home health care and hospice services provider agreed to extend the deadline for its sale to UnitedHealth Group. The Justice Department had sued to block the $3.3 billion deal, citing concerns he combination would hinder access to home health and hospice services in the U.S. The move to extend the deadline comes ahead of an expected shift in regulatory policy under Trump. The incoming administration is expected to have a more permissive approach to dealmaking and is less likely to raise antitrust concerns. In Asia, Japan’s benchmark index surged as the yen remained weak against the dollar. Stocks in South Korea fell after the main opposition party voted to impeach the country’s acting leader. Markets in Europe gained ground. Bond yields held relatively steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.61% from 4.59% late Thursday. The yield on the two-year Treasury slipped to 4.31% from 4.33% late Thursday. Wall Street will have more economic updates to look forward to next week, including reports on pending home sales and home prices. There will also be reports on U.S. construction spending and snapshots of manufacturing activity.

Trudeau, Carney push back over Trump’s ongoing 51st state commentsDespite all the talk of doom and gloom about the economy, entrepreneurship is actually on the rise in the U.S.: In 2024, an average of 430,000 new business applications were submitted every month, marking a 50% rise from 2019. But the number of accountants these new businesses will need to maintain their books, file taxes and do related accounting work is dipping . Nearly 75% of CPAs are expected to retire in a decade, and fewer graduates are choosing accounting because it simply doesn’t pay as much as fields like technology and finance. Serial entrepreneur David Phillips sees an opportunity to fill this growing gap with his latest venture Fondo , which uses software, AI, and accounting experts to offer a bookkeeping platform aimed at startups and small- and medium-sized businesses. Phillips founded Fondo in 2020 after selling his coding school startup, Hackbright, to Capella University in 2016. He’s also an angel investor, having invested in over 85 startups, including Rippling, Flexport and Liquid Death. The four-year-old startup, which operates on a subscription-based model, has already secured approximately 1,200 customers, reached annual recurring revenue of $6 million, and is profitable, Phillips said. Its customers include Eleven Labs, Karat, PostHog, Campus and Limitless AI. “To date, we have saved our customers over $75 million in Delaware Franchise Tax and helped them receive over $16 million back from the IRS in tax credits,” Phillips said. To double down on its traction, the company recently raised an oversubscribed $7 million seed round led by Money Forward, a Tokyo-based fintech company, with participation from Y Combinator, Motley Fool Ventures, Next Coast Ventures, a16z Scout Fund, Index Ventures Scout Fund, and Twenty Two Ventures. The round values the company at $66 million. Fondo is definitely not alone in identifying the opportunity here. A host of companies including Pilot , Digits , Finally and Bench provide accounting services to small and medium-sized businesses. But Phillips feels Fondo differentiates itself by offering an “all-in-one solution” aimed at high-growth startups. “Traditionally, founders use separate services for each function, resulting in inefficiencies and a higher risk of errors,” he said. “Fondo combines these in one platform to simplify financial and tax operations for startups.” The outfit will use the proceeds to invest in products and automation. It is also building an AI agent for its internal team and customers, who can use it to extract insights and analysis about their financial statements, accounts, cash flow and more, Phillips said. Fondo currently has about 70 employees, and is hiring across product, engineering, accounting and other roles. “We’re focused on building a robust product that evolves with the needs of startups. This includes expanding our analytics and reporting capabilities, adding integrations with other tools that founders use, and enhancing our tax-saving options. We’re also looking at ways to support startups as they scale internationally, navigating the complexities of global compliance,” Phillips said.

Bluesky sees growing painsThe U.S. State Department says it has “taken steps to secure the U.S. embassy” in Syria following the collapse of the Assad government. This comes after the toppling of more than 50 years of a dictatorship there, showing an uncertain way forward for any new government. "The fall of the regime is a fundamental act of justice," President Joe Biden said Sunday , but warned that the significant change will also mark a period of uncertainty for Syria and the region. "As we all turn to the question of what comes next, the United States will work with our partners and the stakeholders in Syria to help them seize an opportunity to manage the risks," President Biden said. The Biden administration plans to lend its support to establishing a transitional government in Syria. The White House is in close communication with stakeholders in the region, including Jordan's King Abdullah. More conversations with leaders are expected in the days ahead. RELATED STORY | Military command of Syria's opposition says Damascus is 'free' of Bashar Assad's rule Other countries and groups have a shared interest in continued stability in Syria, but officials also acknowledged the power vacuum carries risks. White House officials told Scripps News the administration is focused on preventing the ISIS terror group from taking advantage of the situation. "One of the things that we're going to work hard to avoid is ISIS being able to exploit this situation and somehow try to revitalize," White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said in an interview. "That is a message that we are sending to all the opposition groups through various means that this is not the opportunity — should not be the time — for a closer relationship, or any relationship, quite frankly, with Isis." "What we are backing is the Syrian people. And we want to make sure that again, through our interlocutors and through the United Nations, we're doing what we can to see legitimate governance there." The conflict in Syria has spanned multiple administrations and is often considered a proxy for the goals of other international actors, including Russia. Officials pointed in part to President Biden's support of Israel and Ukraine as factors that weakened Iran and Russia's ability to support Assad — and one senior administrator official explained that Assad's departure "changed the equation" in the Middle East. But Republican President-elect Donald Trump has indicated the U.S. relationship with Syria may change when he takes office. "Syria is a mess, but is not our friend," Trump wrote on social media over the weekend. "The United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight." Kirby told Scripps News that for the remaining time the Biden Administration has to set U.S. foreign policy, it would continue its mission to suppress ISIS and support legitimate government in Syria.Two senior members of the federal cabinet were in Florida Friday pushing Canada’s new border plan with Donald Trump’s transition team, a day after Trudeau himself appeared to finally push back at the president-elect over his social media posts about turning Canada into the 51st state. Both Trudeau and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, who Trudeau has been courting to become Canada’s next finance minister, shared posts on X Thursday, a day after Trump’s latest jab at Canada in his Christmas Day message. It isn’t clear if Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who has repeatedly insisted Trump’s 51st state references are a joke, will raise the issue with Trump’s team when he and Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly meet with them in Palm Beach. The two are there to discuss Canada’s new $1.3 billion border plan with just under four weeks left before Trump is sworn in again as president. He has threatened to impose a new 25 per cent import tariff on Canada and Mexico the same day over concerns about a trade imbalance, as well as illegal drugs and migration issues at the borders. The broad strokes of Canada’s plan were made public Dec. 17, including a new aerial intelligence task force to provide round-the-clock surveillance of the border, and improved efforts using technology and canine teams to seek out drugs in shipments leaving Canada LeBlanc’s spokesman, Jean-Sébastien Comeau, said the ministers will also emphasize the negative impacts of Trump’s threatened tariffs on both Canada and the U.S. Comeau said the ministers will build on the discussions that took place last month when Trudeau and LeBlanc met Trump at Mar-a-Lago just days after Trump first made his tariff threat. It was at that dinner on Nov. 29 when Trump first raised the notion of Canada becoming the 51st state, a comment LeBlanc has repeatedly since insisted was just a joke. But Trump has continued the quip repeatedly in various social media posts, including in his Christmas Day message when he said Canadians would pay lower taxes and have better military protection if they became Americans. He has taken to calling Trudeau “governor” instead of prime minister. Trudeau had not directly responded to any of the jabs, but on Thursday posted a link to a six-minute long video on YouTube from 2010 in which American journalist Tom Brokaw “explains Canada to Americans.” The video, which originally aired during the 2010 Vancouver Olympics, explains similarities between the two countries, including their founding based on immigration, their trading relationship and the actions of the Canadian Army in World War 2 and other modern conflicts. “In the long history of sovereign neighbours there has never been a relationship as close, productive and peaceful as the U.S. and Canada,” Brokaw says in the video. Trudeau did not expand about why he posted a link to the video, posting it only with the words “some information about Canada for Americans.” Carney, who is at the centre of some of Trudeau’s recent domestic political troubles, also called out Trump’s antics on X Thursday, calling it “casual disrespect” and “carrying the ‘joke’ too far.” “Time to call it out, stand up for Canada, and build a true North American partnership,” said Carney, who Trudeau was courting to join his cabinet before Chrystia Freeland resigned as finance minister last week. Freeland’s sudden departure, three days after Trudeau informed her he would be firing her as finance minister in favour of Carney, left Trudeau’s leadership even more bruised than it already was. Despite the expectation Carney would assume the role, he did not and has not made any statements about it. LeBlanc was sworn in as finance minister instead the same day Freeland quit. More than two dozen Liberal MPs have publicly called on Trudeau to resign as leader, and Trudeau is said to be taking the holidays to think about his next steps. He is currently vacationing in British Columbia.

City are now six games without a victory but appeared to be cruising towards three points before being stunned by the Eredivisie side, who hit them with goals from Anis Hadj Moussa, Santiago Gimenez and David Hancko to fight back from 3-0 down. Two goals from Erling Haaland, one of them a penalty, and one from Ilkay Gundogan had the 2023 European champions three up after 53 minutes as they sought the win that would help to get their ailing season back on track. After the team collapsed in the closing stages, Ake called on his team-mates to show their mettle if their campaign is not to wither away. Speaking to Amazon Prime, he was asked whether he believed the the team’s problem is a mental one. “Maybe it is,” he said. “It is difficult to say. Obviously we have not been in this situation many times but this is where we have to show our character. “When everything seems to go against us and everyone is writing us off, we have to stay strong mentally, believe in ourselves and stick together. “Every season there is a period when they write us off. We have to make sure we stay strong as a team and staff and make sure we get out of it.” The draw leaves City with work to do if they are to secure one of the eight automatic spots in the last 16 of this season’s Champions League. They are currently 15th in the table, two points outside of the top eight, and will need positive results in their next two games against Juventus and Paris St Germain to keep their hopes alive. They then face Club Brugge in their final league match on January 29. The result at least ended a run of five straight defeats in all competitions ahead of Sunday’s Premier League showdown with leaders Liverpool at Anfield. “When you are three goals up it feels like a defeat when you give up three goals at home,” said Ake. “It is tough now, a tough night, but the only thing we can do is look forward to the next one. Liverpool is a big game and it is another challenge to overcome. “(We were) 3-0 up and we played quite well and were under control, but then it all changed. “You just have to stay strong mentally. At 3-1 they then push on but I think we need to go for it a bit earlier so we could keep the pressure on them, but we stayed playing at the back and maybe invited more pressure on us. “Then when you concede the second one there is even more pressure and then we have to stay stronger mentally.”

Earth just experienced its second-warmest November on record — second only to 2023 — making it all but certain that 2024 will end as the hottest year ever measured, according to a report Monday by European climate service Copernicus. Last year was the hottest on record due to human-caused climate change coupled with the effects of an El Nino. But after this summer registered as the hottest on record — Phoenix sweltered through 113 consecutive days with a high temperature of at least 100 degrees Fahrenheit — scientists anticipated 2024 would set a new annual record as well. In November, global temperatures averaged 14.10C (57.38F). Last year's global average temperature was 14.98C (59F). FILE - People are silhouetted against the sky at sunset Nov. 12 as they run in a park in Shawnee, Kan. Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Cape Cod, who wasn't involved in the report, said the big story about November is that "like 2023, it beat out previous Novembers by a large margin." This also likely will be the first calendar year in which the average temperature was more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, the report said. The 2015 Paris Agreement said human-caused warming should be limited to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and ideally below 1.5. In the following years, the world's top scientist said limiting to 1.5 was crucial to stave off the worst impacts of climate change, such as increasing destructive and frequent extreme weather events. Scientists say the main cause of climate change is the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas. That "does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached, but it does mean ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever," said Copernicus Deputy Director Samantha Burgess. A young family visiting Washington cools off from the warm weather in a fountain Nov. 6 at the base of the Washington Monument. Francis said the new records are "terrible news for people and ecosystems." "The pace of warming is so fast that plants and animals cannot adapt as they always have during previous changes in the Earth's climate. More species will go extinct, which disrupts natural food webs they're a part of. Agriculture will suffer as pollinators decline and pests flourish," she said, also warning that coastal communities will be vulnerable to sea-level rise. Heat waves over the oceans and a loss of reflective sea ice and snow cover probably contributed to the temperature increase this year, experts said. Copernicus said the extent of Antarctic sea ice in November was 10% below average, a record. Oceans absorb about 90% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases, later releasing heat and water vapor back into the atmosphere. Last year's record heat was caused partly by an El Nino — a temporary natural warming of parts of the central Pacific that alters weather worldwide. People walk Nov. 27 on an autumn-colored ginkgo tree-lined avenue in Tokyo. But that ended this year and a cooling effect that often follows, called La Nina, failed to materialize, leaving the scientific community "a little perplexed by what's going on here ... why temperatures are staying high," said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan. One explanation is that an El Nino releases more heat to the atmosphere because of warmer ocean waters, then "we're not getting the cooling effect that often in decades gone by helps bring the temperature back down," Overpeck said. "So it does look like this could be contributing to the acceleration of global warming. But this year, he said, "is such a big jump following yet another jump, and that's a scary thing." It's no secret that a warming world will drive food prices higher, a phenomenon increasingly known as " heatflation ." What's less known, but a growing area of interest among economists and scientists alike, is the role individual extreme weather events — blistering temperatures in Texas , a destructive tornado in Iowa — may have on what U.S. consumers pay at the supermarket. At first glance, the answer might seem logical: A drought or flood that impacts agricultural production will, eventually, drive up prices. But it's not that simple, because what consumers pay for groceries isn't only reflective of crop yields or herd sizes, but the whole supply chain. As Grist reports, that's where it gets interesting: Economists are beginning to see a growing trend that suggests weather forecasts play a part in sticker shock. Sometimes the mere prediction of an extreme event — like the record-breaking temperatures, hurricanes, and wildfires forecasters are bracing for this summer — can prompt a spike in prices. It isn't the forecast itself to blame, but concerns about what the weather to come might mean for the entire supply chain, as food manufacturers manage their risks and the expected future value of their goods, said Seungki Lee, an agricultural economist at Ohio State University. "When it comes to the climate risk on food prices, people typically look at the production side. But over the last two years, we learned that extreme weather can raise food prices, [cause] transportation disruptions, as well as production disruptions," said Lee. How much we pay for the food we buy is determined by retailers, who consider the producer's price, labor costs, and other factors. Any increases in what producers charge is typically passed on to consumers because grocery stores operate on thin profit margins. And if manufacturers expect to pay more for commodities like beef or specialty crops like avocados in the future, they may boost prices now to cover those anticipated increases. "The whole discussion about the climate risks on the food supply chain is based on probabilities," Lee said. "It is possible that we do not see extreme temperatures this summer, or even later this year. We may realize there was no significant weather shock hitting the supply chain, but unfortunately that will not be the end of the story." Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages are among the reasons food prices have climbed 25 percent since 2020 . Climate change may be contributing as well. A study published earlier this year found " heatflation " could push them up by as much as 3 percentage points per year worldwide in just over a decade and by about 2 percentage points in North America. Simultaneous disasters in major crop and cattle producing regions around the world — known as multi-breadbasket failure — are among the primary forces driving these costs. Crop shortages in these regions may also squeeze prices, which can create volatility in the global market and bump up consumer costs. Historically, a single, localized heat wave or storm typically wouldn't disrupt the supply chain enough to prompt price hikes. But a warming world might be changing that dynamic as extreme weather events intensify and simultaneous occurrences of them become the norm. How much this adds to consumers' grocery bills will vary, and depends upon whether these climate-fueled disasters hit what Lee calls "supply chain chokepoints" like vital shipping channels during harvest seasons. "As the weather is getting more and more volatile because of climate change, we are seeing this issue more frequently," he said. "So what that means is the supply chain is getting more likely to be jeopardized by these types of risks that we have never seen before." An ongoing drought that plagued the Mississippi River system from the fall of 2022 until February provides an excellent example of this. The Mississippi River basin, which covers 31 states, is a linchpin of America's agricultural supply chain. It produces 92 percent of the nation's agricultural exports, 78 percent of the world's feed grains and soybeans , and most of the country's livestock. Vessels navigating its roughly 2,350 miles of channels carry 589 million tons of cargo annually . Transportation barriers created by low water, seen above, hampered the ability of crop-producing states in the Corn Belt to send commodities like corn and soybeans, primarily used for cattle feed, to livestock producers in the South. Thus emerged a high demand, low supply situation as shipping and commodity prices shot up , with economists expecting consumers to absorb those costs . Past research showing that retail prices increase alongside commodity prices suggests that the drought probably contributed to higher overall food costs last year — and because droughts have a lingering impact on production even after they end, it may be fueling stubbornly high grocery prices today. But although it seems clear that the drought contributed to higher prices, particularly for meat and dairy products, just how much remains to be gauged. One reason for that is a lack of research analyzing the relationship between this particular weather event and the consumer market. Another is it's often difficult to tease out which of several possible factors, including global trade, war, and export bans , influence specific examples of sticker shock. While droughts definitely prompt decreases in agricultural production, Metin Çakır, an economist at the University of Minnesota, says whether that is felt by consumers depends on myriad factors. "This would mean higher raw ingredient costs for foods sold in groceries, and part of those higher costs will be passed onto consumers via higher prices. However, will consumer prices actually increase? The answer depends on many other supply and demand factors that might be happening at the same time as the impact of the drought," said Çakır. In a forthcoming analysis previewed by Grist, Çakır examined the relationship between an enduring drought in California, which produces a third of the nation's vegetables and nearly two-thirds of its fruits and nuts , and costs of produce purchased at large grocery retailers nationwide. While the event raised consumer vegetable prices to a statistically significant degree, they didn't increase as much as Çakır expected. This capricious consumer cost effect is due largely to the resiliency of America's food system . Public safety nets like crop insurance and other federal programs have played a large part in mitigating the impacts of adverse weather and bolstering the food supply chain against climate change and other shocks. By ensuring farmers and producers don't bear the brunt of those losses, these programs reduce the costs passed on to consumers. Advanced agricultural technology, modern infrastructure, substantial storage, and efficient transport links also help ensure retail price stability. A 2024 study of the role climate change played on the U.S. wheat market from 1950 to 2018 found that although the impact of weather shocks on price variability has increased with the frequency of extreme weather, adaptive mechanisms, like a well-developed production and distribution infrastructure with sufficient storage capacity, have minimized the impact on consumers. Still, the paper warns that such systems may collapse when faced with "unprecedented levels of weather variability." Last year was the world's warmest on record , creating an onslaught of challenges for crop and livestock producers nationwide. And this year is primed to be even more brutal , with the transition from El Niño — an atmospheric phenomenon that warms ocean temperatures — to La Niña , its counterpart that cools them. This cyclical change in global weather patterns is another potential threat for crop yields and source of supply chain pressures that economists and scientists are keeping an eye on. They will be particularly focused on the Midwest and stretches of the Corn Belt, two regions prone to drought as an El Niño cycle gives way to a La Niña, according to Weston Anderson, an assistant research scientist at the University of Maryland and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Those growing regions for corn and soybeans are what he'll be watching closely as La Niña develops. It's something Jennifer Ifft, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, is also thinking about. "If you have a very severe drought in the Corn Belt ... that's going to be the biggest deal, because that's gonna raise the cost of production for cattle, hogs, poultry," said Ifft. "So that would probably have the largest inflationary impacts." As of January , U.S. beef herd inventory was at its lowest in 73 years, which multiple reports noted is due to the persisting drought that began in 2020 . Americans, the majority of whom are already spending more on groceries than last year, are poised to soon see "record" beef prices at the supermarket. Food prices are also expected to rise another 2.2 percent in 2024 , according to the USDA's Economic Research Service. In a world enmeshed in extremes, our already-fragile food supply chain could be the next system teetering on the edge of collapse because of human-caused climate change. And costlier groceries linked to impending risk is the first of many warning signs that it is already splintering. This story was produced by Grist and reviewed and distributed by Stacker Media. Get the daily forecast and severe weather alerts in your inbox!US to bolster Ukraine with US$725 million weapons package

AMGEN TO PRESENT AT CITI'S 2024 GLOBAL HEALTHCARE CONFERENCE